tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Rochester via Washington: arrives on time 16%

  1. 13:28 LGA → 14:56 DCA
    AA 4590 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 28m · 43% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:43 DCA → 17:13 ROC
    AA 5375 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 31m · 65% on time, 7.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (7.4% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 46mLGA 13:28 to ROC 17:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.