tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 41%

  1. 10:41 MVY → 12:08 PHL
    AA 4602 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 27m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 21m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:29 PHL → 16:44 DCA
    AA 5636 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 156 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 21m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 03mMVY 10:41 to DCA 16:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.