tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Des Moines via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:04 ATL → 17:27 LGA
    AA 4605 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 24m · 61% on time, 9.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:29 LGA → 20:51 DSM
    AA 4395 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 22m · 67% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (9.9% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 47mATL 15:04 to DSM 20:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.