tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:04 ATL → 17:27 LGA
    AA 4605 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 24m · 61% on time, 9.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 LGA → 21:20 XNA
    AA 4554 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 53m · 67% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (9.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip7h 15mATL 15:04 to XNA 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.