tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Columbia via Washington: arrives on time 50%

  1. 06:15 LGA → 07:44 DCA
    AA 4612 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 27m · 88% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:30 DCA → 10:09 CAE
    AA 5107 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 39m · 75% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 3h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip3h 54mLGA 06:15 to CAE 10:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.