tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Knoxville via Washington: arrives on time 74%

  1. 06:15 LGA → 07:44 DCA
    AA 4612 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 27m · 88% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:00 DCA → 10:48 TYS
    AA 5647 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 47m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 32mLGA 06:15 to TYS 10:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.