tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:19 CMH → 19:12 LGA
    AA 4617 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 53m · 69% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 LGA → 21:43 BNA
    AA 4392 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 44m · 63% on time, 10.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Columbus). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (10.6% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 24mCMH 17:19 to BNA 21:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.