tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Miami via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 14:04 TUL → 18:19 LGA
    AA 4619 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 15m · 64% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 LGA → 22:48 MIA
    AA 1576 · American · 3h 19m · 50% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip7h 44mTUL 14:04 to MIA 22:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.