tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 69%

  1. 06:51 SDF → 07:38 ORD
    AA 4622 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 47m · 86% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 38m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:16 ORD → 12:15 LAS
    AA 2016 · American · 3h 56m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 113 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 38m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip8h 21mSDF 06:51 to LAS 12:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.