tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 78%

  1. 06:51 SDF → 07:38 ORD
    AA 4622 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 47m · 86% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 22m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:00 ORD → 13:04 DCA
    UA 1381 · United · 2h 04m · 86% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 22m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 13mSDF 06:51 to DCA 13:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.