tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:51 SDF → 07:38 ORD
    AA 4622 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 47m · 86% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:45 ORD → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4809 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 08mSDF 06:51 to DCA 13:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.