tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Norfolk via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:03 ATL → 19:28 LGA
    AA 4624 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 55% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 LGA → 22:04 ORF
    AA 4589 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 66% on time, 10.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (10.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 01mATL 17:03 to ORF 22:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.