tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Memphis via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:23 DTW → 19:18 LGA
    AA 4630 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 65% on time, 14.5% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:17 LGA → 22:11 MEM
    AA 4696 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 64% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (14.5% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 48mDTW 17:23 to MEM 22:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.