tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Martha's Vineyard: arrives on time 80%

  1. 08:31 DCA → 10:11 MVY
    AA 4649 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Martha's Vineyard (MVY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:51 MVY → 15:11 LGA
    AA 4570 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 20m · 85% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 40mDCA 08:31 to LGA 15:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.