tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Martha's Vineyard via Washington: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:47 LGA → 12:17 DCA
    AA 4654 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 85% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:24 DCA → 17:00 MVY
    AA 4572 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 36m · 58% on time, 11.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (11.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 13mLGA 10:47 to MVY 17:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.