tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Phoenix via New York: arrives on time 72%

  1. 06:00 CVG → 08:11 JFK
    AA 4657 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 91% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:29 JFK → 11:50 PHX
    AA 1769 · American · 5h 20m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 49mCVG 06:00 to PHX 11:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.