tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Washington via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 25%

  1. 12:59 JFK → 14:57 RDU
    AA 4658 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 58m · 74% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:56 RDU → 17:24 DCA
    AA 5367 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 43% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 23mJFK 12:59 to DCA 17:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.