tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chicago via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 41%

  1. 12:59 JFK → 14:57 RDU
    AA 4658 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 58m · 74% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:57 RDU → 17:41 ORD
    AA 4563 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 44m · 60% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 42mJFK 12:59 to ORD 17:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.