tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 81%

  1. 05:44 BWI → 07:12 ORD
    AA 4659 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 28m · 91% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:00 ORD → 10:35 SDF
    AA 4704 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 36m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip4h 52mBWI 05:44 to SDF 10:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.