tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 19:13 SDF → 20:14 ORD
    AA 4668 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 02m · 79% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:07 ORD → 23:51 IAH
    AA 3144 · American · 2h 44m · 53% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 38mSDF 19:13 to IAH 23:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.