tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbia → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 55%

  1. 06:01 CAE → 08:00 LGA
    AA 4670 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 59m · 86% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:48 LGA → 10:34 ORD
    AA 589 · American · 2h 47m · 76% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Columbia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 34mCAE 06:01 to ORD 10:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.