tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:11 BOS → 19:21 STL
    AA 4678 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 10m · 56% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:14 STL → 21:45 ORD
    AA 4144 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 37m · 59% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 40mBOS 17:11 to ORD 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.