tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Norfolk via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:26 DCA → 18:57 LGA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 55% on time, 13.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 32m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 LGA → 22:04 ORF
    AA 4589 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 66% on time, 10.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 47 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 32m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (13.7% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (10.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 38mDCA 17:26 to ORF 22:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.