tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Columbus via New York: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:26 DCA → 18:57 LGA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 55% on time, 13.7% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:53 LGA → 21:53 CMH
    AA 4680 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 00m · 67% on time, 12.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (13.7% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (12.9% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 27mDCA 17:26 to CMH 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.