Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Nashville via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:09 LGA → 16:46 DCA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 52% on time, 11.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:46 DCA → 18:58 BNA
    AA 1163 · American · 2h 12m · 61% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (11.7% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 49mLGA 15:09 to BNA 18:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.