tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Miami via Washington: arrives on time 22%

  1. 15:09 LGA → 16:46 DCA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 52% on time, 11.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 DCA → 20:34 MIA
    AA 1612 · American · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (11.7% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 25mLGA 15:09 to MIA 20:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.