tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Wilmington via Washington: arrives on time 17%

  1. 15:09 LGA → 16:46 DCA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 52% on time, 11.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:41 DCA → 19:14 ILM
    AA 5229 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 51% on time, 11.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (11.7% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (11.3% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 08mLGA 15:09 to ILM 19:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.