tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Knoxville via Washington: arrives on time 46%

  1. 15:09 LGA → 16:46 DCA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 52% on time, 11.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:46 DCA → 21:33 TYS
    AA 5484 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 47m · 59% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 135 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 00m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (11.7% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 24mLGA 15:09 to TYS 21:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.