tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 64%

  1. 06:00 ORF → 07:29 LGA
    AA 4693 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 86% on time, 6.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:27 LGA → 10:05 BNA
    AA 4364 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 88% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (6.3% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip5h 05mORF 06:00 to BNA 10:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.