tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Miami via New York: arrives on time 58%

  1. 06:00 XNA → 10:06 LGA
    AA 4695 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 06m · 84% on time, 5.1% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 LGA → 14:11 MIA
    AA 2945 · American · 3h 11m · 78% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (5.1% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 11mXNA 06:00 to MIA 14:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.