tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Washington via New York: arrives on time 39%

  1. 06:00 XNA → 10:06 LGA
    AA 4695 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 06m · 84% on time, 5.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 22m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:28 LGA → 14:56 DCA
    AA 4590 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 28m · 43% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 157 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 22m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (5.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip7h 56mXNA 06:00 to DCA 14:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.