tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 20:00 BWI → 21:32 ORD
    AA 4717 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 31m · 68% on time, 13.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:52 LAX +1 day
    AA 1209 · American · 4h 22m · 53% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (13.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip7h 52mBWI 20:00 to LAX 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.