tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:00 CVG → 15:37 ORD
    AA 4720 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 72% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:33 ORD → 20:04 JFK
    AA 1421 · American · 2h 34m · 57% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 07mCVG 15:00 to JFK 20:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.