tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 65%

  1. 16:03 MSP → 17:59 ORD
    AA 4727 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 75% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:22 ORD → 23:42 RDU
    AA 4615 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 80% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 18 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 98 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 23m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 39mMSP 16:03 to RDU 23:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.