tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via New York: arrives on time 54%

  1. 13:59 DCA → 15:35 LGA
    AA 4730 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 62% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 51m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 LGA → 21:20 XNA
    AA 4554 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 53m · 67% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 126 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 51m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip8h 20mDCA 13:59 to XNA 21:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.