tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Chicago via Boston: arrives on time 20%

  1. 14:32 ILM → 16:44 BOS
    AA 4738 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 12m · 62% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:38 BOS → 19:59 ORD
    AA 1592 · American · 3h 21m · 38% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Wilmington). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip6h 27mILM 14:32 to ORD 19:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.