tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 13:12 JAX → 15:00 ORD
    AA 4740 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 52m · 83% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:07 ORD → 20:42 DTW
    AA 3500 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 30mJAX 13:12 to DTW 20:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.