tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:19 MCI → 19:27 ORD
    AA 4745 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 79% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:22 ORD → 23:42 RDU
    AA 4615 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 80% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 23mMCI 17:19 to RDU 23:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.