tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Houston via Philadelphia: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:22 ORF → 18:49 PHL
    AA 4749 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 69% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 PHL → 22:49 IAH
    AA 3021 · American · 3h 54m · 70% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 27mORF 17:22 to IAH 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.