tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 75%

  1. 07:37 SDF → 09:38 PHL
    AA 4750 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 01m · 92% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:09 ORD
    AA 1041 · American · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 32mSDF 07:37 to ORD 12:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.