tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 85%

  1. 07:37 SDF → 09:38 PHL
    AA 4750 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 01m · 92% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 58m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 12:36 PHL → 14:20 DTW
    DL 2331 · Delta · 1h 46m · 92% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 88 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 58m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip6h 45mSDF 07:37 to DTW 14:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.