tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 80%

  1. 07:37 SDF → 09:38 PHL
    AA 4750 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 01m · 92% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHL → 12:38 MSP
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 58m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 01mSDF 07:37 to MSP 12:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.