tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:17 ATL → 18:53 ORD
    AA 4759 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 33m · 58% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 ORD → 23:30 EWR
    AA 2549 · American · 2h 21m · 45% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip6h 13mATL 17:17 to EWR 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.