tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:17 ATL → 18:53 ORD
    AA 4759 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 33m · 58% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ORD → 22:47 BUF
    AA 564 · American · 1h 48m · 57% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 30mATL 17:17 to BUF 22:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.