tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Columbia via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:17 ATL → 18:53 ORD
    AA 4759 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 33m · 58% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:14 ORD → 23:19 CAE
    AA 4275 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 10m · 76% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 07mATL 17:17 to CAE 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.