tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Memphis via Washington: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:20 LGA → 18:58 DCA
    AA 4773 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DCA → 21:25 MEM
    AA 5491 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 25m · 53% on time, 17.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (17.4% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 05mLGA 17:20 to MEM 21:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.