tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 19:28 PWM → 21:37 ORD
    AA 4774 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 06m · 80% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 54mPWM 19:28 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.