tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Miami via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:54 DCA → 16:29 JFK
    AA 4781 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 62% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 JFK → 20:59 MIA
    AA 688 · American · 3h 34m · 76% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 05mDCA 14:54 to MIA 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.