tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:28 MSP → 08:20 ORD
    AA 4803 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 52m · 88% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:19 ORD → 13:34 LGA
    AA 1015 · American · 2h 15m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 74 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 06mMSP 06:28 to LGA 13:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.