tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Missoula via Chicago: arrives on time 85%

  1. 06:28 MSP → 08:20 ORD
    AA 4803 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 52m · 88% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:51 ORD → 12:45 MSO
    AA 3718 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 52m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip7h 15mMSP 06:28 to MSO 12:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.